Our latest blog article overviews trends observed in the Dutch housing market data for Q1. As housing prices fall slightly and interest rates remain high, mortgage applications have decreased.

CBS ( Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek ) reports that in February 2023, the prices of homes occupied by owners were lower than the previous year, marking the first decline since April 2014. Following record-breaking prices and widespread overbidding in 2022, the housing market has finally experienced a decrease this year. This trend is expected to persist, with further price reductions anticipated in the upcoming years.

Interest rates have been climbing up since 2022. According to DNB ( De Nederlandsche Bank), the average interest rate on new mortgages provided by banks has more than doubled since February 2022 (then 1.67%, now over 3%). It is expected the interest rates to remain the same.

DNB ( De Nederlandsche Bank) predicts that first-time buyers will benefit from declining house prices since autumn 2022 and notable wage increases in recent months. As their incomes continue to rise, first-time buyers will enjoy increased financial flexibility and strengthened borrowing capacity, allowing them to allocate more funds towards purchasing a home.

According to economists, these factors will result in a more than 4% improvement in the affordability of owner-occupied homes by the end of 2023 compared to the final months of 2021, before the rise in interest rates.

In 2023, the maximum amount for an NHG-backed mortgage rose to € 405,000. As house prices continue to decline, more and more homes fall within the price limit and qualify for NHG. Our research shows a 39% year-on-year increase in new guarantees issued for home purchases in the first quarter of 2023. Homebuyers can expect an increasing supply of affordable homes with an NHG guarantee.